Wanhua Chemical (600309): Company performance meets expectations 2019 MDI boom repair

Wanhua Chemical (600309): Company performance meets expectations 2019 MDI boom repair

Event: _ On March 1, 2019, the company released the 2018 performance report, Wanhua Chemical achieved operating income of 606 in 2018.

21 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

11%; realized net profit attributable to mother 106.

10 ‰, a decline of 4 per year.

71%; basic return is 3.

88 yuan, down 5 per year.

13%.

Investment points: MDI prices drop, dragging down the company’s performance: The company’s main revenue and profits at the current stage come from polyurethane series products, polyurethane revenue, gross profit accounted for 55%, 75%, changes in MDI prices company performanceSignificant impact.

Since the second quarter of 2018, the domestic aggregate MDI price has dropped significantly. At the end of 2018, the aggregate MDI price was 11,462 yuan / ton, which has gradually decreased by 57.

95%, the previous gross profit level increased by nearly 100%, but the company’s return to net profit decreased.

From our three quarterly report, the company’s preliminary net profit attributable to the parent is 100.

5.5 billion vs. actual 106.

At 10 billion, the difference is only 5.

5%, the performance is basically in line with expectations, in the long run, we are still optimistic about the company’s profitability and outstanding cost control capabilities.

The MDI boom is repaired in 2019, and the company’s revenue growth can be expected: On February 28, 2019, Wanhua significantly raised the listing prices of aggregated MDI and pure MDI in March, the ranges were 2000 yuan / ton and 1,000 yuan / ton,It is also the first time that Wanhua has raised since September 2018.

Similarly, BASF also raised the listing price of aggregated MDI in March, from 1,600 yuan / ton to 1,500 yuan / ton.

In addition, the failure of Covestro’s distillation unit will also affect the price of pure MDI in the future. We expect that the MDI price will have a breakthrough repair in 2019 to provide guarantee for the company’s future performance.

The company completed the overall listing 重庆耍耍网 and layout, and future growth is expected: After the company has completely completed the overall listing, after the reorganization is completed, the company’s MDI production capacity is replaced by its own 180 and BC’s production capacity is replaced by 210, ranking first in the world, and achievedThe company’s layout has evolved from a single MDI oligopoly to two industrial chains and six business divisions. Its business covers polyurethane fields such as isocyanate, TDI, and polyether polyols; acrylic acid and its esters, and propylene oxide.Petrochemical industry; a fully integrated company in the field of water-based PUD, PA emulsion, TPU, ADI surface materials and other special chemicals and materials industry, future development is expected.

Profit forecast and investment advice: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 18-19 will be 100.

55 billion, 129.

01 billion, corresponding to 3 EPS.

676 yuan, 4.

719 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 7 respectively.

61 times, 5.

93 times.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: MDI prices have fallen sharply, and petrochemical prices have fallen sharply.